Electric vehicles will go from three million globally to 300 million by 2040, a new report says.
Data and analytics company GlobalData forecasts a huge shakeup of the legacy automotive industry during the next five years in the switch to EVs and autonomous driving technology.
It also predicts that while the proportion of EVs as new registrations will rise to more than 15% of global passenger vehicles by 2030, large scale commercial production by big car makers is unlikely to take off until 2025.
The company’s latest report ‘Electric vehicles – Thematic Research’ says the EV is one of four themes, along with the connected car, autonomous driving technology and transport-as-a-service, that is disrupting the traditional automotive industry.
“Over the next five years, we expect stress, strain, margin evaporation, and shake out across much of the legacy automotive industry and its Tier-1 parts suppliers as a slow growth industry incurs the expense of conversion to electric vehicle and autonomous driving technology,” GlobalData thematic research head Cyrus Mewawalla says.
Most of the legacy auto industry is in for a period of rising capital expenditure, increased merger and acquisitions activity, tougher regulations, shrinking margins and unprecedented technological disruption in that time, the report says.
“Many car makers will not survive this turmoil.”
Mewawalla says “We are at the very beginning of the cycle, but over the next decade the automotive value chain will be transformed by the electric vehicle theme.”
